LAS VEGAS–I think Dirty Harry Callahan, the rebellious San Francisco movie detective played by the iconic Clint Eastwood said it best when he said on screen, ?A man’s got to know his limitations.?
One of my limitations is a tendency to be a chalk player, meaning picking the favorite, to win in most big fights. Oh, once in while I’ve gone against the betting grain and tabbed an underdog to win and came out smelling like a daisy.
But, in 50 years around ringside, I admit my habit is to go with the favorite.
I’m bucking that tendency here to select Nicaraguan Nutjob Ricardo Mayorga, only 4-4 in his last eight bouts, to shock and amaze Saturday night at the MGM Grand Hotel & Casino by jolting the oddsmakers and betting favorite Miguel Cotto.
Mayorga has been a formidable fighter when he puts his mind to it which has not been that often.
(See Steve Kim’s profile of Mayorga trainer and ex-Miami cop, Big Al Bonanni.)
That’s mainly why the bookies have tabbed the more reliable Cotto as a 6-1 to 8-1 betting favorite. It makes sense.
Mayorga turned 38 on Thursday and he brought his mother along for this promotion which could be a sign that even the Man From Managua knows this is his final Big Rodeo.
But Cotto, having taken real beatings from first Antonio Margarito and then Manny Pacquiao, is a diminished performer himself.
The Boricua Banger is still the idol of Puerto Rico, yes, even as younger Juan Manuel Lopez builds his fan base.
But, although Cotto is only turning age 31 on Oct. 29, his sparkling 35-2, 28 knockouts record includes some high mileage and he showed clearly against destructive Pacman that he is not the same guy, does not have the same agility or quickness that he had in days and fights gone by.
He also has visible scar tissue around his eyes, souvenirs of prior wars. It is not that difficult to make Cotto bleed.
Yes, Cotto is Boxing Hall Of Fame bound but Mayorga has the proverbial puncher’s chance to upset the applecart here.
Sure, Cotto promoter Bob Arum wants to see his man beat Don King’s guy so he can then make the natural revenge match between Margacheato and Cotto.
But, on the other hand, should Mayorga rise up and win this, then Arum concedes he will be more than happy to stage a Mayorga-Pacman bout.
?What a contrast for a promotion, on one side Good and on the other evil,? Arum said to me in the media center Wednesday.
If Pacquiao and the attendant payday are not enough to make the 29-7-1, 23 knockouts Mayorga go all out for a victory, then he is likely finished as a real force in the junior middleweight division.
I suppose he could always take up wrestling or try again to tackle MMA but he must either shock Cotto or else put up a sizzling, inspirational effort to do so.
It’s not often I go with the ‘dog, as I noted.
But this time, I will howl at the moon with Mayorga.
If he has not win after the fifth or sixth round, if he hasn’t stopped the valiant Cotto on cuts or knocked him out by then, then please forget my bold forecast.
One outcome I cannot envision is Mayorga winning by decision.
You won’t see me over at the sports book betting window investing on Mayorga.
But, again, I can see him winning this fight.
I won’t go so far as to put my shekels where my mouth is.
Mayorga by TKO 5.
If I’m wrong, then please pour invisible ink on this column or remind me that I was just goofing around.
Once in a while, it’s fun to howl at the moon.
And, besides that, Mayorga-Pacman could be a really fun ride.
Imagine a Pacquiao opponent who could make Margacheato look like a Boy Scout.
